Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody containing plasma improves outcome in patients with hematologic or solid cancer and severe COVID-19 via increased neutralizing antibody activity. A randomized clinical trial (preprint)

Cancer patients are at high risk of severe COVID-19 with high morbidity and mortality. Further, impaired humoral response renders SARS-CoV-2 vaccines less effective and treatment options are scarce. Randomized trials using convalescent plasma are missing for high-risk patients. Here, we performed a multicenter trial (https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2020-001632-10/DE) in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 within four risk groups (1, cancer; 2, immunosuppression; 3, lab-based risk factors; 4, advanced age) randomized to standard of care (CONTROL) or standard of care plus convalescent/vaccinated anti-SARS-CoV-2 plasma (PLASMA). For the four groups combined, PLASMA did not improve clinically compared to CONTROL (HR 1.29; p=0.205). However, cancer patients experienced shortened median time to improvement (HR 2.50, p=0.003) and superior survival in PLASMA vs. CONTROL (HR 0.28; p=0.042). Neutralizing antibody activity increased in PLASMA but not in CONTROL cancer patients (p=0.001). Taken together, convalescent/vaccinated plasma may improve COVID-19 outcome in cancer patients unable to intrinsically generate an adequate immune response.

Accuracy of rapid point-of-care antigen-based diagnostics for SARS-CoV-2: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis with meta regression analyzing influencing factors (preprint)

BackgroundComprehensive information about the accuracy of antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) for SARS-CoV-2 is essential to guide public health decision makers in choosing the best tests and testing policies. In August 2021, we published a systematic review and meta-analysis about the accuracy of Ag-RDTs. We now update this work and analyze the factors influencing test sensitivity in further detail. Methods and findingsWe registered the review on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42020225140). We systematically searched multiple databases (PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, medRvix, bioRvix, and FIND) for publications evaluating the accuracy of Ag-RDTs for SARS-CoV-2 until August 31, 2021. Descriptive analyses of all studies were performed, and when more than 4 studies were available, a random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing as a reference. To evaluate factors influencing test sensitivity, we performed 3 different analyses using multivariate mixed-effects meta-regression models. We included 194 studies with 221,878 Ag-RDTs performed. Overall, the pooled estimates of Ag-RDT sensitivity and specificity were 72.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 69.8 to 74.2) and 98.9% (95% CI 98.6 to 99.1), respectively. When manufacturer instructions were followed, sensitivity increased to 76.4% (95%CI 73.8 to 78.8). Sensitivity was markedly better on samples with lower RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values (sensitivity of 97.9% [95% CI 96.9 to 98.9] and 90.6% [95% CI 88.3 to 93.0] for Ct-values <20 and <25, compared to 54.4% [95% CI 47.3 to 61.5] and 18.7% [95% CI 13.9 to 23.4] for Ct-values [≥]25 and [≥]30) and was estimated to increase by 2.9 percentage points (95% CI 1.7 to 4.0) for every unit decrease in mean Ct-value when adjusting for testing procedure and patients symptom status. Concordantly, we found the mean Ct-value to be lower for true positive (22.2 [95% CI 21.5 to 22.8]) compared to false negative (30.4 [95% CI 29.7 to 31.1]) results. Testing in the first week from symptom onset resulted in substantially higher sensitivity (81.9% [95% CI 77.7 to 85.5]) compared to testing after 1 week (51.8%, 95% CI 41.5 to 61.9). Similarly, sensitivity was higher in symptomatic (76.2% [95% CI 73.3 to 78.9]) compared to asymptomatic (56.8% [95% CI 50.9 to 62.4]) persons. However, both effects were mainly driven by the Ct-value of the sample. With regards to sample type, highest sensitivity was found for nasopharyngeal (NP) and combined NP/oropharyngeal samples (70.8% [95% CI 68.3 to 73.2]), as well as in anterior nasal/mid-turbinate samples (77.3% [95% CI 73.0 to 81.0]). ConclusionAg-RDTs detect most of the individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, and almost all when high viral loads are present (>90%). With viral load, as estimated by Ct-value, being the most influential factor on their sensitivity, they are especially useful to detect persons with high viral load who are most likely to transmit the virus. To further quantify the effects of other factors influencing test sensitivity, standardization of clinical accuracy studies and access to patient level Ct-values and duration of symptoms are needed.

Machine Learning Identifies ICU Outcome Predictors in a Multicenter COVID-19 Cohort. (preprint)

Background. Intensive Care Resources are heavily utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, risk stratification and prediction of SARS-CoV-2 patient clinical outcomes upon ICU admission remain inadequate. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model, based on retrospective & prospective clinical data, to stratify patient risk and predict ICU survival and outcomes.Methods. A Germany-wide electronic registry was established to pseudonymously collect admission, therapeutic and discharge information of SARS-CoV-2 ICU patients retrospectively and prospectively. Machine learning approaches were evaluated for the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. The Explainable Boosting Machine approach was selected as the most suitable method. Individual, non-linear shape functions for predictive parameters and parameter interactions are reported. Results. 1,039 patients were included in the Explainable Boosting Machine model, 596 patients retrospectively collected, and 443 patients prospectively collected. The model for prediction of general ICU outcome was shown to be more reliable to predict “survival”. Age, inflammatory and thrombotic activity, and severity of ARDS at ICU admission were shown to be predictive of ICU survival. Patients’ age, pulmonary dysfunction and transfer from an external institution were predictors for ECMO therapy. The interaction of patient age with D-dimer levels on admission and creatinine levels with SOFA score without GCS were predictors for renal replacement therapy. Conclusions. Using Explainable Boosting Machine analysis, we confirmed and weighed previously reported and identified novel predictors for outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Using this strategy, predictive modeling of COVID-19 ICU patient outcomes can be performed overcoming the limitations of linear regression models.Trial registration. “ClinicalTrials” (clinicaltrials.gov) under NCT04455451

Molecular Mimicry Map (3M) of SARS-CoV-2: Prediction of potentially immunopathogenic SARS-CoV-2 epitopes via a novel immunoinformatic approach (preprint)

Currently, more than 33 million peoples have been infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and more than a million people died from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a disease caused by the virus. There have been multiple reports of autoimmune and inflammatory diseases following SARS-CoV-2 infections. There are several suggested mechanisms involved in the development of autoimmune diseases, including cross-reactivity (molecular mimicry). A typical workflow for discovering cross-reactive epitopes (mimotopes) starts with a sequence similarity search between protein sequences of human and a pathogen. However, sequence similarity information alone is not enough to predict cross-reactivity between proteins since proteins can share highly similar conformational epitopes whose amino acid residues are situated far apart in the linear protein sequences. Therefore, we used a hidden Markov model-based tool to identify distant viral homologs of human proteins. Also, we utilized experimentally determined and modeled protein structures of SARS-CoV-2 and human proteins to find homologous protein structures between them. Next, we predicted binding affinity (IC50) of potentially cross-reactive T-cell epitopes to 34 MHC allelic variants that have been associated with autoimmune diseases using multiple prediction algorithms. Overall, from 8,138 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identified 3,238 potentially cross-reactive B-cell epitopes covering six human proteins and 1,224 potentially cross-reactive T-cell epitopes covering 285 human proteins. To visualize the predicted cross-reactive T-cell and B-cell epitopes, we developed a web-based application "Molecular Mimicry Map (3M) of SARS-CoV-2" (available at https://ahs2202.github.io/3M/). The web application enables researchers to explore potential cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 epitopes alongside custom peptide vaccines, allowing researchers to identify potentially suboptimal peptide vaccine candidates or less ideal part of a whole virus vaccine to design a safer vaccine for people with genetic and environmental predispositions to autoimmune diseases. Together, the computational resources and the interactive web application provide a foundation for the investigation of molecular mimicry in the pathogenesis of autoimmune disease following COVID-19.

Can we predict the severe course of COVID-19? A systematic review and meta-analysis of indicators of clinical outcome. (preprint)

Background: COVID-19 has been reported in over 40million people globally with variable clinical outcomes. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we assessed demographic, laboratory and clinical indicators as predictors for severe courses of COVID-19. Methods: We systematically searched multiple databases (PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, MedRvix and bioRvix) for publications from December 2019 to May 31st 2020. Random-effects meta- analyses were used to calculate pooled odds ratios and differences of medians between (1) patients admitted to ICU versus non-ICU patients and (2) patients who died versus those who survived. We adapted an existing Cochrane risk-of-bias assessment tool for outcome studies. Results: Of 6,702 unique citations, we included 88 articles with 69,762 patients. There was concern for bias across all articles included. Age was strongly associated with mortality with a difference of medians (DoM) of 13.15 years (95% confidence interval (CI) 11.37 to 14.94) between those who died and those who survived. We found a clinically relevant difference between non-survivors and survivors for C-reactive protein (CRP; DoM 69.10, CI 50.43 to 87.77), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH; DoM 189.49, CI 155.00 to 223.98), cardiac troponin I (cTnI; DoM 21.88, CI 9.78 to 33.99) and D-Dimer (DoM 1.29mg/L, CI 0.9 - 1.69). Furthermore, cerebrovascular disease was the co-morbidity most strongly associated with mortality (Odds Ratio 3.45, CI 2.42 to 4.91) and ICU admission (Odds Ratio 5.88, CI 2.35 to 14.73). Discussion: This comprehensive meta-analysis found age, cerebrovascular disease, CRP, LDH and cTnI to be the most important risk-factors in predicting severe COVID-19 outcomes and will inform decision analytical tools to support clinical decision-making.

Interleukin-3 is a predictive marker for severity and outcome during SARS-CoV-2 infections (preprint)

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a worldwide health threat. Here, we report that low plasma interleukin-3 (IL-3) levels were associated with increased severity and mortality during SARS-CoV-2 infections. IL-3 promoted the recruitment of antiviral circulating plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) into the airways by stimulating CXCL12 secretion from pulmonary CD123+ epithelial cells. This study identifies IL-3 as a predictive disease marker and potential therapeutic target for SARS-CoV-2 infections.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.View Full Text